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Integrated Value Engineering and Risk Analysis for Tunnelling Projects

机译:隧道工程的综合价值工程与风险分析

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Value engineering is a proven engineering technique which utilizes a systematized approach to seek out the highest value option; initial and life cycle costs are paramount in the value engineering. This paper presents an integrated methodology of Value Engineering and Risk Analysis for Tunnelling Projects, which are considered high risk operations due to the high uncertainty associated with the available information required for construction. This methodology couples value engineering based on SAVE International standards and a structured risk analysis process, and utilizes sensitivity analysis for life cycle cost. The proposed methodology differs from current practice in each of its three steps: risk analysis, criteria evaluation, and sensitivity analysis. In the proposed methodology, firstly, risk analysis is a quantitative analysis in which risk factors are evaluated for each of the options and the expected cost of risk is evaluated for each option which is later added to the options cost. Secondly, criteria evaluation is done using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) which accounts for consistency. Thirdly, the value calculation has a direct relationship with life cycle cost, which can vary based on assumptions for the financial parameters (interest rate and inflation rate); sensitivity analysis is used to explore the assumptions' sensitivities and account for those variations. This paper will present the methodology framework and its use in a case study adopted from the City of Edmonton - South Edmonton Sanitary Sewer Stage SA10.
机译:价值工程是一种行之有效的工程技术,它利用系统化的方法来寻求最高价值的选择。初始成本和生命周期成本在价值工程中至关重要。本文介绍了隧道项目的价值工程和风险分析的集成方法,由于与施工所需的可用信息相关的高度不确定性,因此将其视为高风险运营。这种方法结合了基于SAVE International标准的价值工程和结构化的风险分析流程,并利用敏感性分析来计算生命周期成本。拟议的方法在三个步骤中均与当前实践不同:风险分析,标准评估和敏感性分析。在所提出的方法中,首先,风险分析是一种定量分析,其中评估每个期权的风险因素,并评估每个期权的预期风险成本,然后将其添加到期权成本中。其次,标准评估是使用分析层次结构过程(AHP)进行的,该过程考虑了一致性。第三,价值计算与生命周期成本有直接关系,生命周期成本会根据财务参数(利率和通货膨胀率)的假设而变化;敏感性分析用于探索假设的敏感性并解释这些差异。本文将在埃德蒙顿市-南埃德蒙顿下水道SA10阶段采用的案例研究中介绍该方法框架及其使用。

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