This manuscript explores whether Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPAs)2 are likely to remaina prominent part of the US Air Force’s force structure in the future. It focuses on theUSAF because of its central role in the employment of US airpower, arguing that withoutUSAF support, RPAs will face an uphill battle to remain central to US military strategyand budget plans. It focuses on the status of the USAF’s RPAs and RPA pilots since theUS-led invasion of Afghanistan as an indicator of the USAF’s willingness to continueinvesting time and money in RPAs. Status is assessed in terms of the impact of RPA’sover time on USAF pilot roles and training, organizational structure, and technologicalinnovation. The analysis concludes that while RPAs are likely to remain fundamental tothe USAF force structure, they may fade to a “niche’ capability for humanitarian andcounterinsurgency operations unless the USAF decides to make robust investments oftime and money in new technology and concepts of operations to meet the challenges of acontested air environments.
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