Application of Monte Carlo Simulation to Laterally Loaded Piles

摘要

This paper presents a robust Monte Carlo Simulation method that can be applied to the analysis of the load-deflection behavior for laterally loaded piles considering various sources of uncertainties arising from soil properties, analytical model, and p-y criteria. In particular, soil properties needed as input for determining site specific p-y curves could be modeled as random fields. In the simulation process, a large number of random samples are generated as input, and uncertainties arising from inputs and model errors are considered. Performance criteria on the basis of service limit state (i.e., allowable deflection at working loads) and strength limit state (i.e., capacity defined at the specified limiting deflection) can be evaluated for each random sample. The probability of failure, in which failure is defined as not meeting performance criteria, is calculated by the number of failures divided by the number of random samples. A design example is presented at the end of paper to demonstrate practical applications of the developed Monte Carlo simulation method.