Demand Forecasting for Disaster Emergency Materials Based on Optimal Combination Forecasting Method

摘要

Emergency logistics management in disaster is an important part of disaster emergency management system. Emergency materials demand forecast in disaster is a prerequisite for disaster emergency logistics management. This paper briefly introduces the optimal combination forecasting model, determines the weight coefficients of the optimal combination forecasting model by taking the minimum predicting error squares as the criterion, realizes the optimal combination of disaster emergency materials demand forecasting model, and using the actual data of typhoon disaster to have comparative analysis about the forecast accuracy of regression analysis, GM(l.l) and neural network model, Which validate effectiveness and practicability of the optimal combination forecasting model in emergency materials demand.