An Improved Approach of Criminal Predictional Analysis Based on Multifactor

摘要

Geographical profile fs an investigative technique that analyzes special patterns of the related series of crime locations in order to predict the most probable position of the offender residence or determine possible locations of next crimes based on time and locations of the past crime scenes. It is part of the police behavioral science response, and has relationships with linkage analysis and psychological profiling. There is numerous location models exist in the literature. The basic fundamental problem features are still difficult to address simultaneously by using existing models when determining the anchor point. In this paper, we propose three models. The first is generated by the improved K-means algorithm which can predict the next criminal scene which has highest probability'. The second is generated by improved spatial mean and standard distance which can predict a smaller range of the next criminal scene. The third, named GM(1,1). take distance decay into account to predict the next crime place. Finally, we apply our models in the example of serial murders of Peter, and analyze the results with some other important factors.