Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity based on the theory of maximum entropy in the Tarim River

摘要

Based on the data of nature, society, economics and water resources of Tarim River in 2005, we evaluate the water resources carrying capacity for the river by means of the theory of maximum entropy. The results show that the comprehensive grade is 2 for Bazhou, Aksu and Kashi area, where the current water exploitation and use has reached a relative high degree, and there is only a very limited water carrying capacity, while the comprehensive grade is 1 in the Kizilsu and Hotan area, where water resources carrying capacity is much higher. As a whole, the comprehensive grade of Tarim river basin is 2 and the current water exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree. it is urgent to adopt some fundamental measures to promote the water carrying capacity.