Study on drivers of cultivated land change in urban fringe area based on the logistic regression model

摘要

This paper investigates what drives conversions of within cultivated land and non-within cultivated land by logistic regression methods during the period 1982–2000 in typical agricultural urban fringe area (Daxing district) of south Beijing in China. The analyzed databases are supported by socio census and biophysical data. The results indicated that both the biophysical and socio census variables were significantly associated with the occurrences of arable land converting to other land. However, the coefficients of logistic regression containing socio variable of farmer density were stronger related to occurrences of within cultivated land conversion, cultivated land increased and decreased in 1982–2000, whereas regional bio-physical variables related to occurrences of above conversions of land use in 2000–2006. The results suggest that local governmental policies are significant in explaining the pattern of the conversion of arable in the study area before 2000 and for this reason the variety of farmer density response to the physical conditions deserves more attention in land use change modeling.