Sale forecasting method in dynamic environment based on ARMA(1,1)

摘要

Sale forecasting is a difficult thing because of the dynamic sale environment and inefficient sale structure. Considering the short of circle and irregular factor in multiplication model, this paper uses the ARMA (1,1) model to forecast the circle and irregular factor separated from multiplication model. The method is proved effective according to result of the contrast analysis on sale data of 27 month of some product. The use of the method can improve the forecasting accuracy and has great significance for making plan of manufacturing and purchase.