AN EXPANDED STUDY OF SAWE PAPER 3468 - QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY AND RISK IN VEHICLE MASS PROPERTIES THROUGHOUT THE DESIGN DEVELOPMENT PHASE

摘要

SAWE Paper No. 3468 (Boze & Hester, 2009) demonstrated that uncertainty and risk can be quantified by coupling a Monte Carlo simulation using Microsoft® Excel, mass properties data, a work breakdown structure, uncertainty categories, and derived probability distributions. The risk can be assessed by evaluating the probability of occurrence, the standard deviation, and the coefficient of variation resulting from randomly varying the mass properties variable within an uncertainty category's probability distribution. The original paper demonstrated this approach using data collected over an 18 month period on an existing ship acquisition program. The purpose of this paper is to broaden the range of mass properties data used in the same simulation model to a five year design acquisition life cycle in order to gain increased insight into the use of this method. New observations will be drawn as to the required number of simulation runs, the various measures of risk, affects on risk of physical platform changes to satisfy performance requirement changes, as well as disclosing improved graphic methods for displaying some risk data.