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Research on Regional Logistics Input-output Co-integration Relationship and Cause Effect Interaction Mechanism

机译:区域物流投入产出协同整合关系及因果互动机制研究

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Logistics is the arteries of the national economic development and basic industry, but also is the accelerator of the national economic development, it is very important to study the relationship between logistics input and output to impel the development of logistics and economy. Based on the lots of reading relevant documents, the author took logistics investment, logistics network mileage and logistics employees represent the logistics industry input level, took logistics industry product value represent logistics output level as studying objects, it used unit root test, Granger causality test, co-integration test, ECM methods and so on, to analyze empirically the relationship between logistics input and output in Jilin province. The results show that the four time series (logistics industry investment, logistics networks mileage, logistics employees and logistics industry value) are the first-order single whole time series, which indicates that the four factors are subject to the pre-affected, and has a strong inertia. There is a one-way causal relationship between logistics industry value and the logistics industry investment or logistics employees; logistics output in Jilin Province is the Granger reason of logistics industry investment and logistics employees. In a long run, there exists balanced and stable relationship between the logistics input and output, in a short run, logistics inputs also have a positive impact on output, and the deviation of the long-run balanced value is corrected at the rate 28.67%. From the overall analysis, there does not form a good interactive mechanism between the logistics industry inputs and outputs in Jilin Province.
机译:物流既是国民经济发展和基础产业的动脉,又是国民经济发展的加速器,研究物流投入与产出之间的关系对促进物流经济的发展具有十分重要的意义。在大量阅读相关文献的基础上,笔者以物流投资,物流网络里程和物流从业人员代表物流业投入水平,以物流业产品价值代表物流产出水平为研究对象,采用单位根检验,格兰杰因果检验。 ,协整检验,ECM方法等,对吉林省物流投入与产出之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明,四个时间序列(物流业投资,物流网络里程,物流从业人员和物流业价值)是一阶单一的整体时间序列,这表明这四个因素均受到预先影响,并且具有强烈的惯性。物流业价值与物流业投资或物流从业人员之间存在单向因果关系;吉林省的物流产量是物流业投资和物流从业人员的格兰杰原因。从长远来看,物流投入与产出之间存在平衡稳定的关系,从短期来看,物流投入对产出也有积极影响,长期平衡值的偏差校正为28.67% 。从总体上看,吉林省物流业投入与产出之间没有形成良好的互动机制。

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