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UPDATING PREDICTIVE MODELS: CALIBRATION, BIAS CORRECTION AND IDENTIFIABILITY

机译:更新预测模型:校准,偏差校正和可识别性

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Model updating, which utilizes mathematical means to combine model simulations with physical observations for improving model predictions, has been viewed as an integral part of a model validation process. While calibration is often used to "tune" uncertain model parameters, bias-correction has been used to capture model inadequacy due to a lack of knowledge of the physics of a problem. While both sources of uncertainty co-exist, these two techniques are often implemented separately in model updating. This paper examines existing approaches to model updating and presents a modular Bayesian approach as a comprehensive framework that accounts for many sources of uncertainty in a typical model updating process and provides stochastic predictions for the purpose of design. In addition to the uncertainty in the computer model parameters and the computer model itself, this framework accounts for the experimental uncertainty and the uncertainty due to the lack of data in both computer simulations and physical experiments using the Gaussian process model. Several challenges are apparent in the implementation of the modular Bayesian approach. We argue that distinguishing between uncertain model parameters (calibration) and systematic inadequacies (bias correction) is often quite challenging due to an identifiability issue. We present several explanations and examples of this issue and bring up the needs of future research in distinguishing between the two sources of uncertainty.
机译:利用数学手段将模型模拟与物理观察相结合以改善模型预测的模型更新已被视为模型验证过程不可或缺的一部分。虽然校准通常用于“调整”不确定的模型参数,但由于缺乏对问题的物理知识的了解,偏差校正已用于捕获模型不足。虽然两种不确定性因素并存,但是这两种技术通常在模型更新中分别实现。本文研究了现有的模型更新方法,并提出了一种模块化的贝叶斯方法作为综合框架,该框架解决了典型模型更新过程中的许多不确定性来源,并提供了用于设计目的的随机预测。除了计算机模型参数和计算机模型本身的不确定性之外,此框架还考虑了实验不确定性以及由于使用高斯过程模型进行的计算机模拟和物理实验中数据均缺乏而导致的不确定性。在模块化贝叶斯方法的实施中,显然存在一些挑战。我们认为,由于可识别性问题,区分不确定的模型参数(校准)和系统的不足之处(偏差校正)通常非常具有挑战性。我们提供了对该问题的几种解释和示例,并提出了在区分两种不确定性来源方面未来研究的需求。

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