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UPDATING PREDICTIVE MODELS: CALIBRATION, BIAS CORRECTION AND IDENTIFIABILITY

机译:更新预测模型:校准,偏置校正和可识别性

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Model updating, which utilizes mathematical means to combine model simulations with physical observations for improving model predictions, has been viewed as an integral part of a model validation process. While calibration is often used to "tune" uncertain model parameters, bias-correction has been used to capture model inadequacy due to a lack of knowledge of the physics of a problem. While both sources of uncertainty co-exist, these two techniques are often implemented separately in model updating. This paper examines existing approaches to model updating and presents a modular Bayesian approach as a comprehensive framework that accounts for many sources of uncertainty in a typical model updating process and provides stochastic predictions for the purpose of design. In addition to the uncertainty in the computer model parameters and the computer model itself, this framework accounts for the experimental uncertainty and the uncertainty due to the lack of data in both computer simulations and physical experiments using the Gaussian process model. Several challenges are apparent in the implementation of the modular Bayesian approach. We argue that distinguishing between uncertain model parameters (calibration) and systematic inadequacies (bias correction) is often quite challenging due to an identifiability issue. We present several explanations and examples of this issue and bring up the needs of future research in distinguishing between the two sources of uncertainty.
机译:模型更新,利用数学手段将模型模拟与用于改善模型预测的物理观测结合,已被视为模型验证过程的组成部分。虽然校准通常用于“调谐”不确定的模型参数,但由于缺乏对问题的物理学的知识,偏差校正已被用于捕获模型不足。虽然两个不确定来源共存,但这两种技术通常在模型更新中单独实施。本文介绍了现有的模型更新方法,并呈现模块化贝叶斯方法,作为典型模型更新过程中许多不确定性来源的全面框架,并为设计目的提供随机预测。除了计算机模型参数和计算机模型本身的不确定性之外,该框架还考虑了实验性的不确定性和使用高斯过程模型的计算机模拟和物理实验中缺乏数据的实验性的不确定性和不确定性。在实施模块化贝叶斯方法方面,有几个挑战是显而易见的。我们认为区分不确定的模型参数(校准)和系统的不足(偏置校正)由于可识别性问题而言通常是非常具有挑战性的。我们提出了几个解释和这个问题的例子,并在区分两个不确定性来源之间进行了未来研究的需求。

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