Modeling and Simulation of Ecological Footprint of Macao

摘要

In this paper, the ecological footprint of Macao from 2000 to 2020 is studied using Stella mode/ing and theories of system dynamics. From our mode/ing, the value of EF per capita of Macao increases from 3.3ha/capital in 2000 to 4.6ha/capital in 2020. It is the first time that such values are reported and they are valuable to policy makers in Macao. In details, the model consists of three modules-ecological footprint (EF), city and tourism modules. According to the simulation results, the EF per capita is increasing continuously. Population increases from 434, 070 in 2000 to 562,600 in 2020, and tourists increase from 2,175,800 in 2000 to 9,731,180 in 2020.lt is shown that fossil energy land is the key factor influencing the EF of Macao and is affected mainly by city development. Besides, city development is limited by two factors, namely population and available land. The available land for business and housing is becoming scarce. On the contrary, energy price has limited affect on city development. Consequently, it also has limited effect on fossil energy land.