首页> 外文会议>IMECE2009;ASME international mechanical engineering congress and exposition >BOUNDS ON PREVISIONS AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES ON JOINT FINITE SPACES UNDER THE ASSUMPTION OF INDEPENDENCE IN IMPRECISE PROBABILITY
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BOUNDS ON PREVISIONS AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES ON JOINT FINITE SPACES UNDER THE ASSUMPTION OF INDEPENDENCE IN IMPRECISE PROBABILITY

机译:假设独立概率不严格,则有限空间上的条件和条件概率的界线

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The primary difference between precise and imprecise probability theories lies in the allowance for imprecision, or a gap between upper and lower expectations (also called previsions) of bounded real functions. This gap generates a set of probability distributions or measures. As a result, in imprecise probabilities, the notion of independence on joint spaces is not unique; for example, notions of unknown interaction, epistemic irrelevance/independence and strong independence have been proposed in the literature. After introducing the three concepts of independence, various algorithms are proposed to calculate, through the different definitions of independence, both prevision and conditional probability bounds generated by marginal distributions over finite joint spaces,. All algorithms are designed to accommodate two different types of constraints that define the sets of marginal distributions: previsions bounds or extreme distributions. Algorithms are applied to simple examples that show the role of the different quantities introduced and the equivalence of the two types of constraints. It is shown that, in epistemic irrelevance/independence, re-writing algorithms in terms of joint distributions turn quadratic optimization problems into linear ones.
机译:精确概率理论和不精确概率理论之间的主要区别在于对不精确度的考虑,即有界实函数的较高期望和较低期望(也称为前提)之间的差距。此差距会生成一组概率分布或度量。结果,在不精确的概率中,关节空间的独立性概念不是唯一的。例如,文献中提出了相互作用未知,认识论无关/独立和强烈独立的概念。在介绍了独立性的三个概念之后,提出了各种算法,通过独立性的不同定义来计算有限关节空间上的边际分布所产生的预测概率边界和条件概率边界。所有算法的设计目的都是为了适应两种不同类型的约束,这些约束定义了边际分布集:预设范围或极限分布。将算法应用于简单示例,这些示例显示了引入的不同数量的作用以及两种约束类型的等效性。结果表明,在认识论上无关/独立的情况下,根据联合分布的重写算法将二次优化问题转化为线性问题。

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