In this paper, a new stochastic model based on cellular automata is established to simulate the occurrence and development of Schistosoma japonicum (S. japonicum) infection in an endemic population. We included the process of the pathogen invasion from exposure to worm development and till worm death when the infection is cleared in the model. We further utilized the model to predict the prevalence as the outcomes of the selected chemotherapy carried out in Jiahu village. Comparing model predicted prevalence and intensities with the observed parameters, it is anticipated that our cellular automaton transmission model can serve as a tool for studying schistosomiasis transmission dynamics in endemic areas.
展开▼
