Research on the Method of Predicting the Prices of Real Estate

摘要

This paper explains how to forecast the long-term, medium-term and short-term changes of housing prices. Firstly, in the long term, housing prices depend largely on the changes of income caused by the changes of demand, which means house prices will rise by 0.7% if income rises by 1%. Once the fluctuations of housing prices depart from those of per capita disposable income in a short time, it will soon be corrected. Secondly, in the medium term, the actual supply of money has significant impact on the house prices. In case the real monetary growth rate begins to rise, the housing prices will begin to rise in 6 months, and vice versa. Finally, in short-term, the changes of volume determine the direction of price changes. The sales volume of houses change faster than the prices by about 3 months, and the price trend will shift in 3 months after the volume turns its trend. Based on the above laws, the paper makes the relevant countermeasures for the government, developers and home buyers.