Grey Correlative Analysis to Output of Sci-tech for Higher Education in China and their Trends Forecast

摘要

The number of sci-tech papers issued and the number of patent output of higher education in China,are analyzed with the grey system theory,and sci-tech activity devel opment trends of universities are forecasted in the future five years. The results showed that: The number of sci tech papers pubhshed is mainly promoted by the input of staff of sci-teeh activities with“extensive operations”,be longing to low-level output modes,in the future five years this situation will be improved to a certain extent; patent outputs are determined by inputs of sci-tech funds,and at the aspect of the patent output in the next five years,the problems of insufficient incentive of the allocation of internal expenditure of sci-tech funds will be more severe. Last some policy recommendations are proposed out such as changing the“cut it even at one stroke” mode of title performance evaluation for higher school teachers,and strengthening scientific research funds management work,especially management of the internal expenditure of funds.