Research on Demand Risk in Chinese Housing Market under Subprime Mortgage Crisis

摘要

With the further deepening of global Subprime Mortgage crisis, the bubble in Chinese housing market has also begun to burst. The main reason is that the residential income can’t keep up with the rising housing prices. The paper points out the chief factors that influence the purchasing power in Chinese housing market, such as population growth, the process of urbanization, income growth, mortgage policy, the per capita housing, and other factors. Then, the paper combines these factors to construct the demand risk model. By calculating the demand for residence in the next period according to the above-mentioned factors, we will be able to avoid effectively the risk of domestic demand. By the model, the paper analyzes the enormous demand risk and the inevitability of the burst bubble in Chinese housing market in 2008. At the same time, the paper forecasts the recovery of Chinese housing market in 2009 by the model.