Short-Term Forecast of Power Generation for Grid-Connected Photovoltaic System Based on Advanced Grey-Markov Chain

摘要

As a distributed generation, grid-connected photovoltaic system affects the stability of power system directly. The forecast precision for distributed generation will be useful to the power system planning and operation. According to the operation data, which characteristics are changed in exponent rule and randomness, an advanced Grey-Markov chain model has been applied in short-term forecast of 5.6kW grid-connected photovoltaic system. The calculated result shows that the GM(1,1) model accuracy has been greatly enhanced. It indicates that the trend of photovoltaic generation forecast is more definite when the GM(1,1) model was modified by advanced Markov chain.