An outline of the three-layer survivability analysis architecture for strategic information warfare research

摘要

We apply the three-layer survivability analysis architecture developed by Ma & Krings (Ma & Krings 2009, Ma 2008) in the context of distributed networks (such as wireless sensor networks) to the study of strategic information warfare. To simplify the research problem, we assume that the information warfare (IW) is conducted in an isolated paradigm, which we call an electronic cosmos (e-cosmos), i.e., independent of other national and/or war strategies, which is not realistic but allows us to develop a manageable mathematical architecture for modeling and simulation. In this architecture issues outside the cosmos, such as other national or war strategies, are abstracted and represented with the vectors of environmental covariates. This architecture integrates four closely related fields: reliability analysis, survivability analysis, dynamic hybrid fault models, and agent-based computing under a unified architecture. Analogically, it draws on biological inspiration from the studieson metapopulation dynamics, animal communication networks and conflict resolution, social learning and social foraging in behavioral and cognitive ecology. Mathematically, the architecture consists of three layers and is formulated around the core concept of dynamic hybrid fault models---the notion of "Byzantine generals playing the evolutionary game." The three-layer architecture includes a set of definitions, models and approaches: The tactical level deals with unpredictable, latent, unobserved or unobservable risks (UUUR) by utilizing survival analysis and its sister technologies. The strategic level integrates dynamic hybrid fault models (Ma & Krings 2008, Ma 2008) and tactical level models. From the strategic level, the evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) prescribes the sustainable or survivable strategies. In the third level---operational level---a duo of survivability metrics, action threshold survivability (TS) and the expected survivability (ES), are defined to help implement the survivable strategies. This new approach requires neither the knowledge of the probabilities of UUUR events nor the assignment of subjective probabilities. In addition, we subscribe to Deibel's (2007) concept of hierarchical strategies and consider IW strategy as simply a layer in a multi-layer structure of the national strategy. Due to the generalities of the mathematical approaches adopted in the architecture and of the architecture itself, the methodology we develop (temporality termed enhanced evolutionary game theory) may be applied to an expanded cosmos---when the strategic IW is put into a larger context such as warfare strategy.1