Gray Prediction and Gray Correlation Analysis of the Market Demands of City Commercial Residential Buildings: A Case of Harbin City Heilongjiang Province

摘要

With unceasing development of economy of our country and the improvement of people's living standards, the demands of commercial residential buildings increase day by day. It is important to take scientific method to predict the demand of the commercial residential buildings which would provide a scientific basis for the government to adjust and control the real estate market. This paper takes Harbin City, the capital of Heilongjiang province as an example. The original data from 2000 to 2007 that influencing the market demand of commercial residential buildings was combined with the development stages of commercial residential buildings market in Harbin. Then GM (1, 1) gray predict system was used to build the predict model of the commercial residential buildings. Finally gray incidence coefficient between the demand and other factors were calculated out. The results showed that the relative importance of the factors that impact the market demand of commercial residential buildings in Harbin in turn were the level of the city's GDP, the sales value of commercial residential buildings, the per capita disposable income, the total savings for urban residents, urban population of Harbin and the per capita usable floor space of houses for urban residents. The demand of commercial residential buildings was rising in Harbin from 2008 to 2015. Therefore, targeted measures should take to ensure increase of market demand of commercial residential buildings which would change the potential demand into the effective demand and stimulate economic growth.