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Simulation for the masses: Spreadsheet-based Monte Carlo simulation

机译:大众模拟:基于电子表格的蒙特卡洛模拟

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Spreadsheet-based Monte Carlo simulation has come into relatively widespread use as a methodology supporting studies in risk analysis for a broad range of problem types in areas such as operations management, finance, and marketing. The basic methodology is quite easily assimilated by those familiar with the fundamentals of probability, statistics, and sampling, and the practical applications of the methodology are compelling. Practitioners of discrete-event simulation can master spreadsheet-based simulation especially easily, and can expand their skill set importantly by doing so. This paper provides suggestive examples for the use of spreadsheet-based simulation and briefly explores the underlying methodology, mentioning the relevant native Excel tools and reviewing elements of one of the commercial Excel add-ins available to support use of the methodology. The presentation itself will include demonstration and discussion of the dynamics of spreadsheet-based Monte Carlo simulation.
机译:基于电子表格的蒙特卡洛模拟已被广泛用作一种方法,用于支持风险分析研究,涉及运营管理,财务和市场营销等领域的各种问题。熟悉概率,统计和采样基础知识的人很容易吸收基本方法论,并且该方法论的实际应用令人信服。离散事件模拟的从业者可以特别轻松地掌握基于电子表格的模拟,并且可以通过这样做来重要地扩展其技能。本文提供了使用基于电子表格的模拟的建议性示例,并简要探讨了基础方法,并提到了相关的本机Excel工具,并审查了可用于支持该方法使用的商业Excel插件之一的元素。演讲本身将包括基于电子表格的蒙特卡洛模拟动力学的演示和讨论。

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