A Dynamic Model for Investigating Impacts of Road Network Improvements on Future Distribution of Residential and Employee Population using Cellular Automata

摘要

This research attempts to develop a dynamic model using CA that can simulate micro scale changes in resident and employee population due to the improvement of trunk road network on the regional scale. In addition to parameters related to the zoning system and topography, the relationship between trunk road network and population distribution was derived using regression analysis.By incorporating this relationship into the CA model, a dynamic model that can simulate the effect of trunk road network on population distribution was developed. The model was calibrated and used to simulate future population changes to the year 2025 with and without trunk road network improvement in the subject area of Toyohashi City. This model shows a promising method of estimating the likely impacts of trunk road network improvement in the city and the surrounding region on resident and employee population. This might provide useful information for road network improvement plans from the land-use policy perspective and vice-versa.