Evolution of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa

摘要

This paper presents a system dynamics model to study the spread of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa. The HIV/AIDS model includes important feedback mechanisms of the spread of HIV/AIDS, and partly explains the dynamics of the epidemic in a representative Southern African country. The HIV/AIDS model indicates that prevention to reduce risk behavior is crucial in all sta,ges of the epidemic, but is most efficient in an early stage. Financial relief is most appropriate in a more advanced stage of the epidemic.