Ripple Effect of Infectious Diseases on Interconnected Infrastructures：Lessons from SARS

摘要

Interconnected infrastructures are more vulnerable to natural and human-caused disruptive events. Lessons from SARS indicate that infectious diseases not only can cause degraded demand for sectors affected initially, but also have ripple effect on the interconnected infrastructures. Analysis and managing infectious diseases’ ripple effect is important from both theoretical and practical standpoints. In order to comprehend and quantity the ripple effects of a given infectious disease, the Inoperability Input–Output Model (IIM), which is capable of assessing sector vulnerabilities, is applied to China. On the assumption that 10% demand perturbation to the Transport, Post and Telecommunications sector, the IIM analysis reveals different level of inoperability and economic losses in other sectors. We find that Gas and Petroleum Refining, Mining and Quarrying, Production and Supply of Electric Power are especially sensitive. Machinery and Equipment, Coking, Gas and Petroleum Refining, Mining and Quarrying are the most affected sectors in term of economic loss. And the ripple effect on interconnected infrastructures is more significant than the initial effect.