Application of Object-Based Modeling to Predicting Location of Undiscovered Resource Potential and Evaluating Petroleum Exploration Play Risk, Western Qaidam Basin, China

摘要

Object-based stochastic simulation is a widely applicable method that has been used to predict channel sand bodies in fluvial depositional systems in petroleum exploration and exploitation. A petroleum pool that has a common petroleum/water contact and a distinctive pressure regime is a fundamental unit of petroleum accumulation, and can be treated as a natural object. Prediction of the undiscovered petroleum pool locations can be performed employing a method similar to that used to predict sand channels in a clastic reservoir formation. This paper presents results of the application of the object-based modeling to predicting the location of undiscovered resource potential and evaluating petroleum exploration risk in the Tertiary fracture play of the western Qaidam Basin, China. The object-based model of SuperSD integrates geological information of the petroleum system elements in controlling the occurrences of petroleum pools and the spatial correlation among the pools in the play. Other information such as the total play potential from conventional assessment and seismic control can be integrated as geoscience constraints in the simulation. The uncertainty associated with the data and the geological conditions for the predicted locations is expressed as a probability map, representing the exploration risk of the play. The simulated results indicate that the object-based model improves predictions of petroleum occurrences by incorporating spatial correlation information into a statistical model and by checking the consistency of the model with geological constraints.