THE VALIDATION OF MUD FLOW MODEL USING MULTITEMPORAL SATELLITE IMAGES

摘要

The mudextrusion has been an on-going disaster in Sidoarjo, East Java, Indonesia since May 29, 2006. The mud discharge was measured about 50,000 m~3/day. Homes, industries, freeway road, pipelines and agriculture areas have been affected. The spatial model was developed to predict them onthly spread of the mud. The model is executed on the basis of several assumptions such as the constant mud discharge, weather conditions and the efforts to build the dikes. The mud spread is modeled from August to December 2006. The multitemporal Ikonos images have been used to validate the model. The comparative analysis shows few differences between the model simulation and the field conditions. This m odel should be further calibrated to be able to predict mud disaster in the long term.