Application of sensitivity analysis for a risk analysis tool for blowouts

摘要

The Kickrisk analysis tool is a method for assessing the uncertainty of whether or not a blowout will occur during offshore drilling. The development of this tool, which is a joint industry project, started in 1995 and the last version of the tool was finalized fall 2002. Integrating sensitivity analysis in this tool is considered important, but has proved to be a challenging task. The difficulties in integrating sensitivity analysis are mostly due to the mixing of different types of modelling techniques within the KickRisk analysis tool. This paper presents how sensitivity analyses can be performed for this risk analysis tool. A predictive, Bayesian approach to risk and uncertainty constitutes the foundational basis for the tool. This approach is different compared to classical approaches in that probabilities are used to express uncertainty related to future values of observable quantities, and there exist no true probabilities.