Benchmark risk analysis models used in the Netherlands

摘要

A benchmark exercise was initiated to compare five software tools available in the Netherlands for quantified risk analysis. The analysis was performed on a hypothetical establishment. The plant was chosen as to cover many of the scenario's that will be part of a real analysis such as the release of flammable and toxic clouds; liquids, gases and liquefied gases; vessels and pipes etc. Using each participating tool a complete risk analysis was performed. The participants were asked to perform a risk analysis according to the guidelines given in the so-called coloured books. These books give methods for calculating probabilities, consequences and effects. Also guidelines are set-up for performing a risk analysis. All participants had deviations due to the available software, arguments of practicality or matters of principle. The less the methodology for the calculation of the effects of certain scenario's is established the larger the differences that were found between the results. The results for all participants were found largely within one order of magnitude.