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Keynote lecture: Uncertainty analysis for flood defence systems in the Netherlands

机译:主题演讲:荷兰防洪系统的不确定性分析

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摘要

Reliability and risk assessment becomes more and more important as a background for decision making in the field of flood defence design in the Netherlands. In this development reliability experts have to cooperate with a large group of hydraulic, geotechnical, structural and mechanical engineers. This cooperation leads to many discussions related to the exact meaning of both input and output of the failure probability calculations. Additionally, there are from time to time also discussions with civil servants, politicians and the public in general. In those discussions confusion often seems to be a major key word. This holds in particular for the debates on so called epistemological or knowledge uncertainties. This paper summarises a number of the discussions that have taken place in the past few years and hopefully contributes to a gradual better communication on this difficult but important issue.
机译:作为荷兰防洪设计领域决策的背景,可靠性和风险评估变得越来越重要。在这种发展中,可靠性专家必须与大量的液压,岩土,结构和机械工程师合作。这种合作导致了许多与故障概率计算的输入和输出的确切含义有关​​的讨论。此外,还不时与公务员,政客和一般公众进行讨论。在这些讨论中,混乱似乎常常是一个主要的关键词。对于所谓的认识论或知识不确定性的辩论尤其如此。本文总结了过去几年中进行的许多讨论,希望有助于在这个困难但重要的问题上逐步更好地进行交流。

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