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Bayesian modelling of failure prediction using maintenance information

机译:使用维护信息进行故障预测的贝叶斯建模

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In this paper we illustrated that even for large, complex systems with evident heterogeneity and sparse failure data, incomplete maintenance information, simplistic models with nominal but intuitive assumptions can bring out interesting and useful features of the system. Moreover, inference for both population and individual level inferences can be carried out. A hierarchical Bayesian model based on a latent variable structure is proposed to take into account such heterogeneity in reliability/survival data. This is illustrated by an analysis of failure data from several motor operated closing valves at two nuclear power plants.
机译:在本文中,我们说明了,即使对于具有明显异质性和稀疏故障数据的大型复杂系统,不完整的维护信息,带有名义上但直观的假设的简单模型也可以展现出系统有趣且有用的功能。此外,可以进行总体推断和个人层次推断。提出了一种基于潜在变量结构的分层贝叶斯模型,以考虑可靠性/生存数据中的这种异质性。这是通过分析来自两个核电厂的几个电动关闭阀的故障数据来说明的。

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