Effects of Weather Forecasting Errors on Air Traffic Control Automation System Performance

摘要

This paper presents the results of an air traffic control (ATC) simulation study of the benefits of adding weather forecasts to an ATC automation system. The forecasts are used by the automation system to sequence, schedule, and route arriving aircraft. The method developed uses fixed routes, variable speed controls and a weather cost function utilizing radar reflectivity data. Three kinds of forecasts were used: perfect, persistence, and a simplified version of the Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) forecast. Radar data from storms on 3 days were used to generate the forecasts. The results show that using weater forecasts in ATC automation systems can increase runway throughput, decrease aircraft delay, and reduce flight time through heavy weather. Comparisions with aircraft tracking data associated with some of the weather data show that even a persistence forecast can increase throughput by 4 aircraft per runway-hour and decrease delay by 6 minutes.