Analysis of Sequence Flight Delay and Propagation Based on the Bayesian Networks

摘要

Flight delay is becoming more and more serious in air transportation system. This paper attempts to apply the Bayesian Method in the analysis of flight data. It pays much attention to the situation of the same plane in sequence flight. The Bayesian networks for this purpose were constructed using the Netica software package. The sequence flight data analysis is made by the Bayesian Network inference and tested by the real flight data. The result shows, based on probability statistics, the model could better reflect the reason distribution of sequence flight delay and delay propagation state.