Are standard load profiles suitable for modern electricity grid models?

摘要

Demand data is as necessary for energy system analysis as generation data and grid information. When it comes to time series analysis, load profiles are required. In Germany standard load profiles (SLPs) are widely used by network operators and electricity grid modelers. Multiple research and also business offers show that advanced techniques can improve forecasted small consumers loads. Hence, our contribution reviews SLPs and suggested improvements along with other available data. In a case study for a rural region in north-west Germany, assumed load profiles of a grid model are compared to real demand derived measurement data. Additionally, available forecasted and realised power of SLP customers by the distribution system operator are evaluated. The creation of a regional synthetic load profile from this data using a simple approach improved relative root mean square error by approx. 10 % compared to usage of SLPs.