Macro Demand Spatial Approach (MDSA) Combined with Principal Component Analysis and Qualitative Analysis on Spatial Demand Forecasting for Main Development Area in Transmission Planning

摘要

Macro Demand Spatial Approach (MDSA) is an approach introduced in long time electricity demand forecasting considering location. It will be used at transmission planning and policy decision on electricity infrastructure development in a region. In the model, MDSA combined with principal component analysis (PCA) and qualitative analysis (QA) to determine main development area in region and the variables that affecting electricity demand in there. Main development area is an area with industrial domination as a driver of economic growth. The electricity demand driver variables are different for type of electricity consumer. However, they will be equal for main development areas. The variables have no significant effect can be reduced by using PCA. The generated models tested to assess whether it still at the range of confidence level of electricity demand forecasting. At the case study, generated model for main development areas at South Sumatra Subsystem as a part of Sumatra System is still in the range of confidence level. Thus, MDSA can be proposed as alternative approach in transmission planning that considering location.