PV Power Forecasting with Holt-Winters Method

摘要

Due to global warming issue and growing of energy demand, photovoltaic (PV) power plant is a desirable alternative to electrical power generations. An accurate PV power forecasting is essential to alleviate its negative impacts and to improve its performance. This paper proposed a short-term PV power forecasting technique based on Holt-Winters method. Its property and principle are presented. There are two main parameters, i.e. the number of days (N) and the weight index (α). The values of these two parameters affect the forecasting accuracy, and a set of optimal values for both parameters used for all season is proposed. A real PV generated power profile is collected from the eastern part of Thailand and used in this study. The performance of the proposed forecasting technique is carried out by MATLAB program. The simulation results indicate that the proposed method provides acceptable short-term forecasting results. The proposed technique can be applied in energy management and electrical power smoothing applications.