Investigating Iran's Nuclear Latency Subject to the Status of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

摘要

The Islamic Republic of Iran and the E3/EU+3 (China, France, Germany, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States, with the High Representative of the European Union) agreed to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on January 16, 2016. Many government officials and nuclear experts viewed the JCPOA as an effective tool for limiting the risk of Iranian nuclear proliferation. However, on May 8, 2018, the U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the JCPOA with imposing of sanctions on November 5, 2018. These actions raise the possibility that the JCPOA may collapse. This study aims to analyze the sensitivity of Iran's nuclear weapons latency value, defined as the time needed for a non-nuclear weapon state to develop a conventionally deliverable nuclear weapon, in addition to evaluating Iran's uranium stockpile depending on the status of the JCPOA and/or Iran's continued compliance. The Nuclear Weapons Latency Tool developed at Texas A&M University is used to estimate the nuclear weapons latency values. This Matlab-based software focuses on the use of time-dependent proliferation pathway modeling using Petri nets, with the key variables for this study being the enrichment capacity and uranium stockpile. Previous publications have assessed the latency values and breakout times for Iran prior to the JCPOA as a function of time with the JCPOA in force. This study is aimed at assessing the break out time and nuclear weapons latency values of Iran in addition to their uranium stockpile estimation as a result of the U.S., and possibly EU, withdrawal from the JCPOA and assuming Iran is not complying with the JCPOA regulations. Such a study will help inform policymakers of the implications related to the JCPOA's implementation status.