THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLES POWER GENERATION IN SOUTH AFRICA - AN INDEPENDENT ANALYSIS

摘要

Thirty three percent of new electricity capacity in South Africa may come from Wind, Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) and Solar Photovoltaic (PV) by 2030. This will amount to about 19 GigaWatt (GW), made up of 9200 MegaWatt (MW) from Wind, 1200 MW from Solar CSP and 8400 MW from Solar PV. To date 3725 MW of renewable electricity generation have been allocated to be built before 2016. Already 2460 MW is under construction or in financial close stage. Based on April 2013 fully indexed prices, tariff for Wind farms dropped from R1284/MWh in Bid Window 1, to R1008/MWh in Bid Window 2, and to R737/MWh in Bid Window 3. For Solar PV plants, tariff dropped from R3098/MWh in Bid Window 1, to R1848/MWh in Bid Window 2, and to R990/MWh in Bid Window 3. For Solar CSP plants, tariff dropped from R3017/MWh in Bid Window 1, to R2822/MWh in Bid Window 2, and to R1640/MWh in Bid Window 3. Although this trend is encouraging, it is however important to also look at plant performance factors and lifespan of the plant to really see the benefits of this reduction in electricity cost. One way of doing this is to look at the Life Cycle Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of these plants on a common basis. This paper compares projected LCOEs of the various renewable energy power plants, from an independent and objective point of view. It also looks at the LCOE of a modern coal-fired power plant of similar size and life span to the proposed renewable plants for comparison. Conclusions and recommendations are drawn based on the findings and lessons learned to date.