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Investigating Representation Alternatives for Communicating Uncertainty to Non-experts

机译:调查向非专家传达不确定性的代表性替代方案

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摘要

Non-experts are confronted with uncertainty of predictions everyday when, e.g., using a navigation device or looking at the weather forecast. However, there are no standards for representing uncertain information and representations could be easily misleading. Thus, we selected twelve representations that provide different levels of uncertainty information. We compared the representations in an online survey with 90 participants where we asked participants to judge their support in decision-making, familiarity, easiness to understand, and visual appeal. We further evaluated the four most promising representations in a turn-based online game. Players had to make decisions in a farming scenario based on a displayed weather forecast. The results of the survey and the game indicate that a function graph of a probability distribution function is the best way to communicate uncertain information. Nevertheless, our results also show that presenting more uncertainty information does not necessarily lead to better decisions.
机译:非专家面临每天的预测不确定性,例如,当使用导航设备或查看天气预报时。但是,没有表示不确定信息的标准,并且表示可能很容易误导。因此,我们选择了12个表示提供了不同级别的不确定性信息。我们将在线调查中的表示与90名与会者进行了比较,我们要求参与者在决策,熟悉,易理解的情况下判断他们的支持,以及视觉上诉。我们进一步评估了基于转向的在线游戏中最有前途的陈述。基于显示的天气预报,玩家必须在农业场景中做出决定。调查结果和游戏表明概率分布函数的功能图是传达不确定信息的最佳方法。尽管如此,我们的结果还表明,呈现更多不确定性信息并不一定会导致更好的决策。

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