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Duration Prediction for Truck Crashes Based on the XGBoost Algorithm

机译:基于XGBoost算法的卡车碰撞持续时间预测

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Congestion caused by traffic crashes can cause serious problems for the road, traffic participants, and the environment. Truck crashes usually have the characteristics of high severity and long duration. Here, we study 12,259 truck crashes in Shanxi Province from 2012 to 2017. An XGBoost algorithm was used to predict crash duration using data after classification and feature selection. Samples were divided into two parts in each group, 80% of samples were used to train model and 20% of samples were used to test model. Root-mean-square error (RMSE) representing the variance between predictive value and true value was used to evaluate models.The model performed well for for truck crashes lasting less than 360 min, with RMSE of 10.8932 for 0-90 min duration and RMSE of 17.6550 for 90-360 min A large RMSE was measured when predicting truck crashes lasting more than 360 min.
机译:交通事故引起的拥堵会给道路,交通参与者和环境造成严重的问题。卡车撞车通常具有严重程度高和持续时间长的特点。在这里,我们研究了2012年至2017年山西省发生的12259起卡车撞车事故。使用XGBoost算法使用分类和特征选择后的数据预测撞车持续时间。每组将样本分为两部分,其中80%的样本用于训练模型,而20%的样本用于测试模型。使用代表预测值和真实值之间方差的均方根误差(RMSE)来评估模型。该模型对于持续不到360分钟的卡车碰撞表现良好,在0-90分钟的持续时间内的RMSE为10.8932,RMSE在90-360分钟内达到17.6550的峰值。当预测卡车撞车持续时间超过360分钟时,测得较大的RMSE。

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