A Development Situation Early Warning Method of Distributed Generation in China

摘要

Distributed generation has gradually become an important part of energy power supply system in China. The development situation early warning of distributed generation is helpful to guide the healthy and orderly development of distributed generation. This paper proposes a development situation early warning method of distributed generation. The distributed photovoltaic power situation early warning index system is established, which contain developmental level, rate of capacity utilization, project profitability, the grid adequacy and the layout coordination. Based on distributed photovoltaic development data of recent five years, short-term forecast and comprehensive evaluation of distributed photovoltaic development situation are made. Case study shows that this method can provide a more scientific and comprehensive development situation early warning of distributed generation, and provide support for targeted policy suggestions.