Forecasting System of Office Supplies Demand Using Simple Moving Average and Simple Exponential Smoothing (Case Study: Regional Office of The Ministry of Religious Affairs of Jakarta)

摘要

The focus of this paper is to calculate the forecast of office supplies demand in the Regional Office of The Ministry of Religious Affairs of Jakarta. The major research is to compare two techniques of forecasting, namely simple moving average (MA) and simple exponential smoothing (SES) with the least of forecasting error of Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) in order to get high accuracy of future office supplies demand. Every year, the Regional Office has to purchase and provide office supplies to its employees. However, the management still has difficulties to determine the quantity of office supplies that have to be stored in the inventory to avoid the stock-out. It happens because the management does not have an accurate prediction of office supplies that are required by the employees. Therefore, to get more accurate forecast, the future demand will be calculated based on last three years data of demand using the above methods. Then, the forecast value with the least of error will be used. It is expected that once the management has an accurate demand predicted then the insufficiency as well as excess of inventory would be minimized.