Wildfire Early Warning of Power Grid Failure Rate Based on Modified Ellipse Model

摘要

To give early warning of the transmission line, outage rate is essential due to adverse impact on power grid of forest fire. In this paper, a modified ellipse forecast model is adopted to divide the spreading area of the fire into two semiellipses. After correcting puncture voltage with the result of the modified ellipse forecast model, the breakdown probability model is applied to give an early warning of the transmission line outage rate. The simulation result shows that the model has great accuracy in predicting the spread of forest fire and the rate of transmission line outage. With this model, the government can make scientific scheduling decisions and improve the resistance of grid to forest fire.