Impact of the end of CMOS miniaturization on ICT and the world after that

摘要

The downsizing of electron devices has always been the key to promote the computer performance and energy consumption for the past 70 years since its beginning. However, it should be noted now that the downsizing of the electron devices, - such as MOSFETs in CMOS LSI - cannot continue forever, and expected to reach its limit about 10 years from now. Thus, no big progress expected in the microprocessor level any more, but the rapid growth of IoT technologies will connect many different kinds of devices, resulting in the significant enhancement of the processing abilities in our society. Also, AI (Artificial Intelligence) constructed on the semiconductor computer will become much wiser than human brain in specific purpose use, helping our society promote to higher stage. In a long term, however, even with the tremendous progress of AI technologies, the system fabricated on the solid-state devices and their network cannot compete with the existing bio system constructed on organic materials in efficiency and maintenance. Thus, the technology how to use the bio system better, or how to combine electron and bio systems will become very important.