The harvest planning of aromatic coconut by using Monte Carlo simulation

摘要

Our research studies the harvest plan for aromatic coconut for the aromatic coconut manufacturers located in Ratchaburi province, Thailand. The supply planning is complex because there are many uncertain factors. For example, the number of coconuts in each crop is varied and depends on the season, water amount, soil fertility and pests. In addition, coconut price at farm gate is highly fluctuated. At present, the factory faces harvest planning problems due to supply shortages, price and appropriate harvest time fluctuation. Since the harvest age of the coconuts affects the quality of the product and purchasing cost. Then, we used a Monte Carlo simulation to support the harvest planning process for the company. The objective function seeks to maximize a total profit under price and supply fluctuation throughout the year with respect to a fixed period and varied period constraints. The results are compared with the scenarios which could be applied as the decision making tools for the supply planning of the company.