Reliability Analysis of Thermal Warping Deformation of Brake Disc Based on AK-MCS Method

摘要

In order to solve the problem of reliability analysis in which the thermal warping deformation of the automobile brake disc presents an implicit complex nonlinear relationship with the design variables, a reliability analysis method of thermal warping deformation of brake disc based on AK-MCS method was proposed by combining Kriging model, active learning strategy and Monte Carlo Simulation. The Kriging model was used to construct the surrogate model of the thermal warping deformation performance function of the brake disc, and the continuous updating of the Kriging model was realized by establishing the learning function U. Based on this, Monte Carlo Simulation method was used to calculate the reliability of the thermal warping deformation of the brake disc, and the failure probability is 0.0035. The prediction accuracy of the Kriging model was tested and the results show that it meets the engineering requirements, so the reliability analysis results were proved to be efficient. The proposed method can be used for reference for the reliability analysis of automobile key parts.