Online determination method of power system fault chains based on the bus load rate

摘要

Fault chain model, the basis of risk assessment and prevention control, is used to avoid cascading outages. In this paper, a new fault chain model is established. The fault chain, calculated by this fault chain model, is consisted of the initial segment and the middle segment. The index of bus load rate for the initial and the middle segments is presented firstly to reflect the load condition of a system in the fault chain model. Then, other indices, such as historical fault statistics, line load degree, and correlation coefficient in the initial segment and power flow transfer, sequent overload of lines, and damage of transmission sections in the middle segment, are concerned and normalized to predict all the fault chains. Besides, the maximizing deviations method is used to calculate the weight of index. Finally, the rationality of the proposed fault chain model is demonstrated via New England 39 bus system.