Impact of Holiday-Free Policy on Traffic Volume of Freeway: An Investigation in Xi'an

摘要

For the purpose of investigating the influence, brought by the highway-free policy, on the highway traffic volume and traffic safety, traffic prediction of the future, and provide a theoretical basis for the traffic management departments to develop management strategies. The traffic volume from 2012 to 2016 in Xi'an city was forecasted with tolls based on the ARIMA model algorithm, the data of the National Day was selected. And the result of prediction was compared with the actual traffic volume from 2012 to 2016 without the tolls. The results indicated that with the policy implementing, the traffic volume has experienced a dramatic growth: the average annual daily traffic during the National Day from 2012 to 2016 was 386,442 veh., which increased to about 301% compared to with the condition without tolls. On the other hand, the policy also promoted the development of other industries and made distinct social and economic benefit. The above results show that during the holidays the number of cars soared, highlighting the problem of traffic congestion, traffic management departments should formulate corresponding policies to optimize, and play the timeliness of policy, ease traffic congestion, and provide a theoretical basis for promoting the sustainable development of the city.