A Vulnerability Analysis Method of Spacecraft under Space Debris Impact

摘要

In order to properly assess the failure degree of a spacecraft under the impact of debris, a vulnerability analysis method is proposed in this paper. The system-level effects resulting from various failure modes of components are considered, and corresponding various damage levels of spacecraft are defined. Debris flux model-ORDEM 2000 is adopted to calculate the susceptibility P_H of outer structure of spacecraft impacted by debris. To assess the damage degree of outer structure and cover plates of components impacted by debris/debris cloud particles, Shot-Line algorithm is used. Calculation method of failure probability of components p_k is proposed with structure failure and functional degradation of components is taken into account. Fault tree Analysis (FTA) method is performed to calculate system-level failure probability P_K of spacecraft, and which is defined as the risk assessment parameter of spacecraft under debris impact to replace the probability of no penetration (PNP). In the case of satellites, vulnerability analysis process of a simulated satellite under hypervelocity impact of space debris is presented, as well as preliminary results. The presented methodology can predict the system-effects of spacecraft impacted by centimeter-level or millimeter-level space debris.