APPLICATION OF SWAT MODEL TO ASSESS THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SREPOK RIVER BASIN FLOW, DAK LAK PROVINCE, VIETNAM

摘要

SUMMARY: Srepok River is the largest river in the river system in Dak Lak. It is not only an important tributary of the Mekong River but also a river-basin which plays an crucial role in the socio-economic development of Dak Lak province in terms of agriculture, hydropower, water supply for the living activities in the lower areas. The fast-delevoping pace in our country results in the higher demand in energy. Therefore, a series of hydroelectric power plants are built up in the Srepok river. The climate change has had clear impacts on the river basin in recent years. Hence, the application of modelling is a new approach to solve and predict potential problems occuring in the environmental field due to the climate change. Model SWAT (Soil and Water Accessment Tool) is applied to assess the impacts of land use and climate on the stream flow in the Srepok river basin, to provide information for the management strategies and for the Drang Phok's project planning, which will potentially contribute to the sustainable development strategy in the region. In our research, input data for the model SWAT (including DEM map, soil map, land use map and climatic condition of the river-basin) were taken from 2010 to 2012. fter calibrating and validating the model based on the real values of streamflow, the NSI indexes of three hydrological stations including Ban Don, Bridge 14 and Due Xuyen at calibration step were 0.9424; 0.8953; 0.6458 and R~2 were 0.9548; 0,9569; 0.8267, respectively. At the validation step, the NSI indexes were 0.775; 0.7994; 0.6338 and R~2 were 0.8142; 0.8014; 0.7639 respectively. The results proved that SWAT model can be applied to assess the changes in stream flow in Srepok river-basin in the future, under the impact of climate change and land use changes.